The Russian military continues its advance both in Donetsk and on the northeastern front in Kharkiv and Sumy. While massive airstrikes with missiles and drones on Kyiv and Odesa have now become a daily occurrence, the Russians are expanding their territorial gains in northeastern Ukraine. Indeed, many analysts note that the countdown has begun for the creation of the Sumy People's Republic, as Russian troops are just a few kilometers away from the city of Sumy. However, analysts point out that along several parts of the front, the actual line of contact is so blurred and disputed that it is very difficult to distinguish which territories are under Russian control and which are under Ukrainian control.
In any case, Russian President Vladimir Putin—who four years ago today, on September 30, announced the accession of the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions into the Russian Federation—has noted that wherever a Russian soldier steps, that becomes Russian territory. This is a very resounding statement that reinforces Moscow's argument: as long as the war continues and Ukraine does not accept the terms for a peace agreement, the conditions will only get worse for Kyiv... This argument is now acknowledged even by Ukrainian lawmakers, who argue that the best deal for Ukraine was the one offered to it in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul.
The capture of Ulanovo
The news is good for the Russians from the military front in the Sumy region. There, fighting for the village of Ulanovo has drawn to a close. Russian soldiers of the "North" unit overcame Ukrainian resistance in the settlement, and it is now under their full control. On September 28, relative footage appeared from the area showing combatants and flags. "The battles for the village were very difficult. To understand, the assault on Ulanovo began on July 15. There are several reasons for this. First, the settlement itself is not small. Before the war, 820 residents lived in Ulanovo. Furthermore, its location—the village lies on both banks of the... Loknya River. Initially, we had to destroy the bridge over the river with FAB bombs to make it difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to transfer forces to the southern part of the village. And then, once the south was cleared, we had to cross the river. And for some time, there were problems with that as well," argues Russian military analyst Dmitry Degtyaryov, creator of the Telegram channel "General Staff." Additionally, in the surrounding forests, the Ukrainian military had set up fortified positions, and taking them was likewise not easy. At the same time, relatively small forces have been deployed from the Russian side, as the expert pointed out: while a powerful force has concentrated in the direction of Velykyi Burluk, there is nothing comparable here.
Preparing the Sumy People's Republic
According to Russian military analysts, the countdown to the creation of the "Sumy People's Republic" is in full swing as Russian forces capture new settlements, and the distance to the capital of the Sumy region has been reduced to just a few kilometers. As reported, updates are arriving from the border zone regarding advances and the preparation of new operations toward the regional capital, alongside updates on the most modern means of warfare. On the front, however, Russian forces continue clearing the encircled Ukrainian forces in the Vovchansk pocket, which initially spanned over 400 square kilometers but has now been reduced by nearly a factor of one and a half. A few days ago, in just twenty-four hours, the Russians took full control of two settlements while simultaneously clearing a small pocket north of the village of Mala Vovcha, which had already been captured on September 18, reported military analyst Dmitry Degtyaryov, creator of the "General Staff" channel. According to Degtyaryov, Russian forces captured the village of Khizhnyakovka, which had been abandoned prior to the war, leaving behind deserted houses overgrown with bushes and trees.
Linking up forces
What is significant here is that, after taking positions in the abandoned village, less than 2 kilometers remain until a linkup with Russian positions in Komissarovo. When this occurs in the foreseeable future, everything further east will be cut off. A large pocket will be created inside the already existing pocket. "I have already spoken about the tactics followed here by the 'North' group—it organizes encirclements within encirclements. It splits the large pocket into smaller and smaller ones and then gradually clears them out. The reason is that the front covered by the 'North' group is extremely vast—it includes the entire Sumy region, the border in the Chernihiv region, and part of the Kharkiv region. They must hold this entire front. They lacked sufficient forces to clear a 450-square-kilometer pocket all at once," says the Russian analyst.
Complete clearance in October
The village of Buzovo also passed under Russian control. The advance reached an impressive 6 kilometers. The current vector of the attack indicates that everything is leading toward a linkup with positions in Khizhnyakovka and the isolation of the northern portion of the pocket. Thus, three separate and isolated pockets will be created within the broader encirclement—the northern, the eastern, and the southern. In total, according to Degtyaryov's estimate on September 25, approximately 310 square kilometers and 15 settlements remain to be cleared inside the pocket. In his estimation, there is a high probability that this will be completed within October, the entire area will come under Russian control, and Ukrainian forces will be neutralized. At the same time, every day soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue trying to escape from the pocket, sometimes on foot, sometimes on motorcycles, and sometimes even in cars. However, the overwhelming majority of these groups are inevitably struck by FPV drones, as are the forces attempting to break the encirclement from the outside.
Belousov at the front
Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov inspected the "North" group and was briefed on the creation of a buffer zone in the border region of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. In the Sumy region, according to force commander General Yevgeny Nikiforov, units captured 250 square kilometers and 10 settlements. However, far greater emphasis was placed on the regional capital itself: "The 'Kursk' group is conducting offensive operations on the territory of the Sumy region in the general direction toward the city of Sumy. During the summer, 10 settlements and more than 250 square kilometers of territory were liberated. We are continuing combat operations to liberate four more settlements." The words of a veteran of the Wagner PMC and creator of the Condottiero channel on June 29 come to mind: "The creation of the Sumy People's Republic is in full swing. High-ranking Ukrainian officers who participated in the invasion of the Kursk region have begun to be eliminated." Even more important, however, are the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who claimed that "wherever a Russian soldier steps, that is ours."
Major defense breach to a depth of 7 kilometers
Fighters from the Russian "Center" group broke through an extremely difficult three-tiered defense line in the direction of Dobropillia, crossed the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway, and captured the village of Novovodiane. In Dobropillia itself, the assault on the city continues across its entire perimeter—attacks are taking place in the northern, central, and southern sectors. Over the past twenty-four hours, the command of the "Center" group reported that 70 buildings were brought under control. This means that the end here is drawing closer and closer.
ISIS tactics adopted
In the Lyman sector, despite recent statements by Andriy Biletsky, head of "Azov," the Ukrainian army has made no advance in recent days. All attempts to attack Russian positions or, even more so, to cross the Zherebets River end in heavy losses for the Ukrainians, Russian media point out. Specifically, strike footage was published by fighters of the 144th Division. In just one video, minus 5 Ukrainian soldiers are recorded. On average per twenty-four hours, judging by objective control footage, the Ukrainian military loses at least a platoon/company of fighters here, who move directly into the strike zone. As reported by Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotenok, in the 3rd Army Corps of Ukraine there are "special units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, highly motivated and highly trained, where they invest in every soldier": "A new tactic of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction, or rather a return to old methods. They were attacking with small motorized columns using ISIS tactics—in front of the columns, they sent booby-trapped armored personnel carriers. They packed them with explosives, rigged the APCs, and sent them forward under operator control." A similar operation was planned in the direction of Dobropillia, but it either already failed or never began due to high losses in the 3rd Army Corps. "The opponent is expanding their control zone, disrupting the logistics of the advancing Russian force. At the same time, they have taken into account the experience of fighting near Kursk: they do not over-fortify, they do not rush forward blindly, but remain mobile, calmly occupying dominant ground points and trying to avoid encirclements, 'pockets,' and other unpleasant surprises," emphasizes Kotenok.
Difficult situation in Lyman
However, as has been noted many times, conflicting information is arriving from this specific sector, as reports from other open-source analysts and war correspondents describe the situation as difficult, but without panic for Russian forces. "The superiority in manpower created by the opponent in the mutually penetrating groups in the direction of Izium—in the active operations zone totaling an area of 165 square kilometers—with a ratio of 1000/600 in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by September 10, allowed them to project a media 'victory.' By September 30, due to excessive losses by the opponent and the transfer of some of our own reserves there, the ratio balanced out to 700/700—a fact that allowed the stabilization of the tactical situation in this secondary sector..." claims retired Russian colonel Aslan Nakhushev.
Blurred picture
At the same time, a number of Russian war correspondents reported that the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Ridkodub, Nove, Karpivka, and Yampil in the Donetsk People's Republic remain under Russian control, despite Biletsky's claims. However, fighting in the areas of these settlements is generally not disputed. The Russian Ministry of Defense also confirms that Yampil, Novomykhailivka, and Nove are fully under Russian control. Furthermore, as noted by Russian political analyst Alexander Semchenko, a paradoxical situation has arisen in the sector, as the Ukrainians themselves depict what Biletsky claims to have 'captured' as a 'grey zone' without a clear line of contact. At the same time, according to him, something will soon happen in this direction that will bring joy even to many of those who are panicking: "By the way, a well-informed person from our side told me literally yesterday: Expect good news from Krasnyi Lyman. No exact date, but he said: It is already starting there. Something good is starting. We are waiting."
"The line simply does not exist anymore"
At the same time, many military analysts argue that it is high time to stop thinking in terms of "frontlines." As they report, there is a zone of active combat operations, and the initiative can pass from one side to the other depending on command actions. After all, Nakhushev had previously characterized the Ukrainian army's "counteroffensive" as a temporary shift of initiative in its favor due to the hyper-concentration of personnel transferred from other directions. "If one compares our maps and the Ukrainian maps of the special military operation, one can be left stunned. The control zones differ by about ten kilometers. The exact same settlements are claimed as liberated, accompanied by videos with flags," points out RT Russian correspondent Alexander Kharchenko. In Krasnoarmiisk, for example, the Ukrainians reached the point of absurdity. They left soldiers with flags inside basements.
A month later, Western journalists visited the brigade headquarters. For their sake, soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine waved flags—and news appeared in the media that the Ukrainians control almost the center of Krasnoarmiisk. According to the war correspondent, such flag-bearers were detected within minutes, and then their position was destroyed. This end, of course, was not broadcast, but several such 'doomed' soldiers remained in the city for another 2–3 media reports. "Our fighters who enter settlements first are undoubtedly heroes. The problem is that in war, heroism does not win—system wins. Errors on our maps and reports appear because they rely on heroes. Where a Russian soldier sits, that is considered our territory. This perception must change. Our territory is only where the Russian soldier is supplied with food, water, and ammunition. That is the territory from which they can operate against the opponent. Logistics can only be created by a system," emphasizes Kharchenko.
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